Where is everybody going?

I really wish it was that simple. Well, starting tomorrow, things will start to get a little simpler as teams may begin discussing contracts with any free agent they wish. In this post, the goal will be to sort out the mess, attempting to clearly show where I think a lot of the big names will be going. Along the way, I’ll probably highlight some things I think others are overlooking.

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The Teams who have the Money to Make Moves: Knicks ($34.5M), Nets ($30M), Bulls ($29.9M), Heat ($27.5M), Clippers ($16.8M), Kings($14.7M), & T’Wolves ($13.1M)

The Big Four: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Joe Johnson

The Fallback Options: Rudy Gay, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Paul Pierce, and Dirk Nowitzki

This whole shabang starts and ends with LeBron James. The above are all great players, and Wade brings Championship and MVP pedigree to the board. Still, LeBron is who everybody is after. With LeBron, you can’t rule out Cleveland. After that, I’ve heard so many scenarios that its annoying. In my eyes, I think “The King’s” options are clear: He’s either going to stay home, or become a Knick/Net. The reason I so easily eliminate the Bulls is because I feel like there is no way LeBron is going to walk by that Michael Jordan statue every year for the rest of his career. Let’s also remember that Cleveland plays in the same division as Chicago. It’s one thing to leave town, but going to a division rival would be Benedict Arnold status.

So that leaves the Knicks/Nets. I combine these two into one entity because I don’t understand how people look at these teams differently. In two years, the Nets will be in Brooklyn, and are co-owned by New York’s own Jay-Z (cue Jay-Z’s “Empire State of Mind). Add in the fact that they have young players and plenty of talent to put around LeBron, and they seem like a very legitimate choice. The whole history thing with the New York Knicks means nothing to me, because New York’s history is that they get beat every year in the playoffs–if they even make it!

Dwyane Wade is staying in Miami, and will either have Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, or Amare Stoudemire joining him. The Bulls will land one of the big power forwards (Bosh, Boozer, or Stoudemire), and possibly Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay to go with them. The Knicks will also land one of the aforementioned power forwards, or perhaps hold onto David Lee. The thing that needs to be kept in mind through all of this, is that some of these FA’s seek a championship, while others are seeking a big payday.

Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki both opted out of their deals it seems to force the issue on a long term deal. Ray Allen will be a free agent and I don’t look for him as a lock to stay in Boston. The way I see it, he’s going to look for that big payoff, on a decent team.

Why This Could All Become a Mess

What I see happening, is that teams who lose out on their star players, such as the Suns losing Stoudemire, will be forced to enter a rebuilding period. This means that Steve Nash would likely become trade bait to a team that was unsuccessful during the free agent period. Today’s hot rumor was that Carmelo Anthony would be trade bait if the Knicks were unable to get LeBron. At first glance I said, “yeah right.” But then I thought, “why not?” When this week is over, and all the dust settles, we could have a completely different NBA as we know it. I hope you’re all as excited as I am.