The San Antonio Spurs and the Boston Celtics are two of the better franchises in the NBA, hands down. The Celtics should probably be considered one of the greatest franchises in all of sports, whereas the Spurs have been a force in the NBA for the past decade. Both of these teams are still considered as contenders to win in it all this June, but I can’t help but think these two teams are headed downward, and faster than you think.

It is my humble opinion, that both of these teams will not make the playoffs next season (unless of course, some crafty moves are made) and this is why:

Age – The Spurs are the oldest team in the league, boasting an average age of 30. Two of their three core players in Tim Duncan (33) and Manu Ginobili (32) are starting to show their age this season, missing games, while also being sat on the back end of back-to-backs. The third core player, Tony Parker is 27, but his body has no doubt taken a toll over the years, as he’s only played all 82 games in his career once. The Celtics have an average age of 28, but if you look at their big three, Kevin Garnett is 33, Ray Allen is 34, and Paul Pierce is 32. Coupled with age, comes health, and of these six players, Ray Allen is the only one who hasn’t missed considerable time the past few seasons.

Money – Money controls everything. This off-season will be an interesting one for both of these teams, as each will have to decide whether to keep a key player. Manu ($10M) and Ray Allen ($19M) will be free agents, and could be targeted by teams looking for a veteran wing player. I could see Ray Allen willing to take less money to stay, but Manu, a huge fan favorite in San Antonio, I’m not as sure about. I could easily see a team making a Peja Stojakavic mistake, signing him to a huge deal when he’s past his prime.

Looking further ahead, the Spurs will have even bigger decisions to make after the 2010-2011 season as Richard Jefferson($15M) and Tony Parker ($13.5M) will become free agents. Tim Duncan will become a free agent the next season, and I can honestly see him retiring at that point. He’d be 35. The Boston future looks just as problematic as Garnett is due to make $21M through 2011-2012, while Paul Pierce will become a free agent after 2010-2011 (assuming he accepts his player option). They’ve honestly locked up Rajon Rondo to be the future of the franchise, but seeing how Boston handles “the big three” will truly define the future of the franchise.

The Draft- The Spurs Draft well every year, and they still hold the rights to Brazilian big man, Tiago Splitter, who is still rated very high. But the Celtics don’t draft well, and that’s partially because they lack draft picks due to various trades. Their most recent pick, 2^nd rounder Lester Hudson, is now on the Grizzlies. J.R. Giddens, Semih Erden, and Gabe Pruitt detail the picks before him.

The Spurs are in a division full of young, up and coming teams, like the New Orleans Hornets, Houston Rockets, and Memphis Grizzlies. The Celtics, luckily out East, could stay alive as a 5^th or 6^th seed next year, but I think their iffy play of this season is truly a sign of things to come. Doc Rivers wasn’t a good coach before he got Garnett and Allen, and as soon as things go south, he’ll be on his way out. San Antonio has a great coach, who players play hard for, but unless they can deal some players to get younger, they’ll be joining Boston in the gutter.

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Let the Arguments Fly!

-G